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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0766

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 18 03:32:46 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 180332
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 180332=20
    WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-180530-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0766
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1032 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

    Areas affected...northeast Iowa into southwest Wisconsin

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 216...218...

    Valid 180332Z - 180530Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 216, 218 continues.

    SUMMARY...Potential remains for damaging winds with the main line of
    storms. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

    DISCUSSION...A bow-echo is currently moving across north-central IA,
    with much of the push now north of the warm front. Recent surface
    observations indicate weaker wind gusts compared to earlier this
    evening as the cooler air is encountered.

    A warm front currently exists from this bow eastward into far
    southern WI. This boundary has not moved much, but may retreat
    northward overnight allow further destabilization into northeast IA
    and southwest WI.=20

    Given the 50 kt low-level jet, the surface cool layer immediately
    north of the warm front may become shallow enough to allow severe
    gusts to the surface. As such, the severe wind risk is expected to
    persist with the existing bow, and perhaps with additional waves
    that may form farther south along the squall line entering into
    central IA. An additional watch and/or extension may be needed into
    the remainder of eastern IA and into southwest WI in the coming
    hours.

    ..Jewell.. 05/18/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4eFr9cPD_9o90Hz3vSqsw0lbWWskQS5gOIHadc8r-FpH3eUN5wtW8hM3ElbqQSBdDxwgk4BM4= E4IsRb7Mpoae84WGvs$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...

    LAT...LON 41919421 42309364 42969324 43259330 43469340 43719375
    43889314 43919217 43809118 43569063 43269036 42859044
    42499094 42259153 41919421=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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