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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0765

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 18 02:30:44 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 180230
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 180230=20
    IAZ000-MNZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-180400-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0765
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0930 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

    Areas affected...Parts of northwestern Missouri into central Iowa
    and far southern Minnesota

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 216...218...

    Valid 180230Z - 180400Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 216, 218 continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe gusts and brief line-embedded tornadoes will remain
    a concern with an elongated QLCS for at least the next few hours. A
    couple of gusts may exceed 75 mph.

    DISCUSSION...A mature QLCS, with multiple embedded bowing segments,
    continues across northwestern MO into central IA and southern MN.
    Embedded bowing segments have a history of severe gusts in the 60-75
    mph range, as well as reported brief tornadoes along the leading
    line. While nocturnal cooling/stabilization has begun, surface
    temperatures remain in the upper 70s to near 80F across the warm
    sector, particularly over central IA. Given upper 60s to near 70 F
    surface dewpoints, boundary layer stabilization will be gradual, so
    the severe gust/QLCS tornado threat should persist for at least a
    few more hours.

    The relatively greatest threat for severe gusts and QLCS tornadoes
    remains with a prominent bowing segment in northern IA to MN, in
    close proximity to the warm front. However, severe gusts and perhaps
    a QLCS tornado may also occur with smaller surges in the broadened
    elongated QLCS across central and southern IA.

    ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8Rz4T2MdKbuw0CxnlnNwj0wZ24MVL9j4RG0ifulmZCjU-ghn4RPWuPiDQbucqqoqhY9WffsUo= QZ6OgOblikswKb2AmQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

    LAT...LON 39899483 40109602 40549597 41329543 42329476 43349439
    44049367 44129341 44199309 43889272 43449252 42419258
    41459274 40449314 40029423 39899483=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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