ACUS11 KWNS 180050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180049=20
MNZ000-IAZ000-180145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0763
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Areas affected...portions of northern Iowa into southern Minnesota

Concerning...Tornado Watch 216...

Valid 180049Z - 180145Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 216 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind/hail and a few tornadoes
continues with the stronger storms, particularly those along the
warm front.

DISCUSSION...Multicell clusters and supercell structures have
developed ahead of an elongated QLCS, which have a history of hail,
low-level rotation, and at least one brief tornado. These storms are
showing strong rotation as they cross the warm front, where the best
chance for tornadoes exists due to enhanced SRH in this region. The
northern end of the QLCS will also approach from the southwest,
accompanied by a severe wind/hail risk, though a line-embedded
tornado cannot be ruled out with these storms as well.

..Squitieri.. 05/18/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_bbfgdRLQBL7TeTp3jxOB-tEZ-5yOlGikPWD9i9UomaAqkClI9AsQ4bcjD-5UU6uSujYPCXqY= ToymnRRaPycA665ilA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON 43799495 44279463 44349366 44149260 43779233 43259218
42889252 42719319 42709405 42819463 43049504 43799495=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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