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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0761

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 17 23:54:16 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 172354
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 172353=20
    IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-180100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0761
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0653 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

    Areas affected...portions of eastern Nebraska into northern Kansas
    and western Iowa

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 213...214...

    Valid 172353Z - 180100Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 213, 214 continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe wind and hail remain a concern with ongoing storms
    over eastern NE into western IA and northern KS. Focused corridors
    of severe wind, with isolated QLCS tornadoes, may accompany mature
    bowing segments.

    DISCUSSION...The cold front continues to surge southward and merge
    with the dryline, which may be at least partially contributing to
    the rapid upscale growth of ongoing multicells and supercells into
    line segments. Should this trend continue, then severe wind will
    become the main threat in a couple of hours, with a secondary risk
    of hail and isolated QLCS tornadoes. Bowing segments may be capable
    of producing focused corridors of 50+ kt gusts, with some exceeding
    65 kts in magnitude. QLCS tornadoes are also most likely with the
    bowing segments.

    Supercell tornado potential seems more conditional given the
    prominent mixed/linear storm modes. One storm in Thayer County, NE
    is attempting to maintain supercell structure and currently contains
    a tornado. Given strong instability and vertical wind shear in
    place, any discrete supercell that can sustain itself will have a
    conditional potential to produce a strong tornado.

    ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!49r8P9w4TcNo0oGzqUeta36Xr_fI4YFvyjFrIbYthlVsFrhAbX1YdQQ292R5ZKOq7Ld73-0Cc= qsnQ4ZseVAZxY-_StA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

    LAT...LON 38949816 40139774 41859705 42779635 43189574 43189548
    42919527 42429522 41789528 40939539 40169576 39589622
    39119718 38949816=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)