ACUS11 KWNS 172222
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172222=20
MIZ000-172315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0759
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0522 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Areas affected...portions of central Lower Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 172222Z - 172315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A few instances of severe hail may accompany multicells
and isolated supercells over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered multicells and supercells continue to
traverse a WAA regime to the north of a warm front. Given 50+ kts of
effective bulk shear near these storms, severe hail may still occur
with the strongest updrafts. Nonetheless, the severe threat is
expected to be more on the sparse side. Conditions will continue to
be monitored for the need of a WW issuance should storms experience
a rapid trend in intensification, or become more widespread.

..Squitieri/Smith.. 05/17/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_Pb-b4JrB6z_rA9FWh1u6H7jXGXklFr3yOmZ684jiRdrQlwDQLz75kjsHm2cyYLQjJ62RxFFP= lsOX1cJAb-yGm02bKE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

LAT...LON 44578656 44208345 43848271 43508249 43308277 43348346
43608453 43868549 43998598 44188645 44578656=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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