ACUS11 KWNS 172220
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172219=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-180045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0758
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0519 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Areas affected...extreme eastern Texas Panhandle...northwest
Oklahoma into south-central Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 172219Z - 180045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...At least isolated supercells are possible later this
afternoon and into the early evening. The conditional risk of very
large damaging hail is high, along with a risk of a couple
tornadoes. The area is being monitored for initial deep convection.

DISCUSSION...High based convection currently exists within the
low-level lapse rates plume west of the dryline from the TX
Panhandle into far southwest KS where temperatures have reached 100
F. Meanwhile, mid 90s F extend into much of northwest OK, where
little convective inhibition remains.

Low-level moisture is in the process of increasing from the
southeast. GPS PWAT values around 1.25" are moving across central
OK, while values near 1.60" are noted near the Red River. This
suggests higher-quality boundary layer moisture will eventually
spread northwestward into the strongly heated zone from the TX
Panhandle into northwest OK later this afternoon into the early
evening.

Modified 18Z OUN sounding indicates low to mid 90s F temperatures
are needed to remove inhibition. This will become more likely as the
moisture spreads northwestward. Steep midlevel lapse rates over 8.0
C/km along with about 40 kt deep-layer shear oriented west-east
across the dryline suggest supercells with very large hail potential
will be possible. A tornado, even strong, cannot be ruled out with
any longer tracked supercell.

..Jewell/Smith.. 05/17/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7boLRasC8ZiHGeYyEHP9j9yJw4Wy0Qse1QXNnkTo3FIfIm9rwHLNt4I4qKwR1CzGT9dnkcAu4= Wz-RU5nvV5vC7GXTq4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON 35080050 37289965 37879947 38379918 38419879 38259828
37589777 37099758 36739758 36469772 36229829 35929900
35179961 34860000 34930048 35080050=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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