ACUS11 KWNS 172214
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172213=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-172315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0757
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0513 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Nebraska into
northern Kansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 214...

Valid 172213Z - 172315Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 214 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat will continue to increase through the
evening hours. 2+ inch diameter hail, 75+ mph wind gusts, and
tornadoes are all possible with mature, sustained supercells. Swaths
of severe wind may become the predominant concern if storm mergers
occur and storms get undercut by the cold front.

DISCUSSION...Supercells are maturing across central/eastern
Nebraska, ahead of the merging cold front/dryline. These storms are
rapidly maturing in an environment characterized by 3500+ J/kg
MLCAPE and 40+ kts of effective bulk shear, which is more than
adequate for intense supercells. Current live streams depict a
strong tornado in progress over Howard County, NE, or roughly 15
miles north of Grand Island.

Low-level shear, while currently modest will increase markedly ahead
of the ongoing storms, which will support larger, curved hodographs.
As such, supercells that mature and sustain themselves will have the
potential to produce 2+ inch diameter hail and tornadoes, with
additional strong tornadoes possible. However, the ongoing storms in
Nebraska may become undercut by the cold front soon, which could
also counter future strong tornado potential with those particular
storms. Therefore, mesocyclonic tornado potential is strongly
conditional on supercells remaining discrete ahead of the cold
front.

High-resolution deterministic and ensemble guidance strongly
suggests that storms across eastern NE into northern KS will merge
into one or more bowing segments. Should this occur, 75+ mph winds
and EF0-EF2 QLCS tornadoes will become the main concerns.

..Squitieri.. 05/17/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6f76vn3eExAOghpLOo3H_advRmjXS7SHiCHcTRspAdCitr7mDm1ENiIPJDx7ZZHtp_WoM2lA1= bZB66kb2DIwnlQToco$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON 38919872 40789887 41339880 41629848 41779741 41769678
41609632 41159621 40449636 39339707 38979763 38839819
38919872=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)