ACUS11 KWNS 172102
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172101=20
GAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-172300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0756
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0401 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Areas affected...portions of central/northern Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 172101Z - 172300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms will continue to pose some
risk for isolated strong to damaging wind gusts and marginally
severe hail for another couple of hours. Watch issuance is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar imagery depicts ongoing pulse
thunderstorms across portions of central/northern Georgia, with
temperatures in the mid/upper 80s and low/mid 60s F dewpoints
contributing to 1500-2000+ J/kg MLCAPE across the discussion area
(per latest mesoanalysis and recent ATL ACARS profiles). Weak
mid-level flow (evident in regional VWPs) and resultant weak
effective shear within this moderately unstable environment are
favoring pulse convection across the region. While buoyancy and PWAT
values are more limited across northern Georgia compared to areas
farther south, steep low-level lapse rates (8+ C/km) and PWAT values
of 1.3-1.5 inches may support some potential for isolated
strong/damaging wind gusts (likely in the 40-50 mph range) and small
to marginally severe hail for another couple of hours. This severe
potential is forecast to remain limited in coverage and magnitude.
Convective activity is then expected to decrease with time this
evening owing to low-level nocturnal cooling/stabilization.

..Chalmers/Smith.. 05/17/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!41hqckuQPD8u_fVm6j53w2w1BduNrrxptAmnt_BVM0Si-uX6LN8yvmrmLcfSjY_q5oVe7uc7V= Nd8Jw1Z0QG8Eqa-Qf8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...

LAT...LON 32548383 33088468 33798513 34398532 34848515 35028479
35048427 34828372 34428331 33828297 33108289 32858292
32638310 32528340 32548383=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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