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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0754

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 17 20:31:40 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 172031
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 172031=20
    MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-172200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0754
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0331 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

    Areas affected...portions of southeast SD...far northwest IA...and
    far southwest MN

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 213...

    Valid 172031Z - 172200Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 213 continues.

    SUMMARY...A swath of damaging winds up to 80 mph is possible
    downstream of an ongoing bow moving east/northeast across southeast
    SD this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...A small but well-organized bow is ongoing across
    southeast South Dakota this afternoon. This storm has produced gusts
    near 80 mph over the past hour. The downstream environment remains
    favorable for a continuation of damaging wind swaths as convection
    moves along the gradient of moderate instability oriented across the
    region. Regional VWP data shows midlevel flow increasing to around
    40-50 kt with rich low-level moisture in place across far southeast
    SD and northwest IA. Radar presentation recently suggests a
    rear-inflow jet may be developing, which aligns with strengthening
    midlevel flow noted in regional VWP. This supports a continued risk
    for strong to intense damaging winds to near 80 mph over the next
    1-2 hours as the system continues east/northeast near 45-50 kt.

    ..Leitman.. 05/17/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8R3k6gnG4suWJ-EzLVpFoBt_gugqLh6UKefRPoHhsMMIfn1h5-ojrp8Ht2VrHM1z2nor-WZmW= mnwHi4BLzGnETbcIs8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...

    LAT...LON 43769797 44039626 43799540 43409534 43089557 42799662
    42719741 42669810 42899822 43399827 43769797=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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