ACUS11 KWNS 172009
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172008=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-172245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0753
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0308 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Areas affected...northeast Colorado vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 172008Z - 172245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated high-based thunderstorms may pose a risk for
strong wind gusts and large hail through this evening. A severe
thunderstorm watch may be needed sometime late this afternoon, but
timing is uncertain.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms have developed near the
foothills in the I-25 corridor in central CO. This activity may
continue to develop and shift east/northeast over the next few
hours. The downstream airmass is relatively cool and dry in the wake
of a prior cold frontal passage. However, steep midlevel lapse rates
and strong vertical shear are present. RAP forecast soundings
indicate elongated/straight hodographs amid steep low and midlevel
lapse rates. This may be sufficient for isolated severe storms
capable of strong downburst winds and large hail. Trends will be
monitored for possible severe thunderstorm watch issuance later this
afternoon.

..Leitman/Mosier.. 05/17/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5pIq4p9TLgUyVYgaz1J3v-qlTRkvtgenJqyFsFi1j0UguGr9EB_w4zDxkt4zHMGbq4uxG_MHi= oGH4D6CIl_w_W_T8UY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON 40680337 40950235 40870187 40330150 39370127 39240135
38920172 38730249 38570418 38660456 38890488 39260504
39610511 39880506 40140468 40330434 40680337=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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