ACUS11 KWNS 171946
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171945=20
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-172045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0752
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Areas affected...portions of south-central and southeast NE into
north-central KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 171945Z - 172045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The severe thunderstorm risk is increasing across portions
of south-central and southeast Nebraska into north-central Kansas.
All severe hazards are possible with storms that develop in the
region, including very large hail and strong tornadoes. A tornado
watch will likely be needed for portions of the MCD area soon.

DISCUSSION...Strong heating and dewpoints climbing into the 66-69 F
range beneath very steep midlevel lapse rates (as observed by 18z
RAOB at OAX) is resulting in strong instability across the region.
Latest visible satellite imagery shows an expanding cumulus field
across the warm sector to the east of a dryline across central KS
and into southern NE ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front.
The VWP at KUEX indicated 1-3 km flow around 30-40 kt with
vertically veering wind profiles suggesting discrete supercells are
possible within the open warm sector. This also is apparent in the
last few WoFS runs, with most members of the ensemble forecast
system indicating discrete supercell development. Confidence in this
scenario is highest across NE where midlevel capping has largely
eroded this afternoon. However, deepening cumulus and strong
convergence near the surface low across north-central KS could
support isolated development southward near the dryline/triple
point.=20

Given a very favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment
(especially as a low-level jet increases toward 00z), a tornado
watch will likely be needed soon for portions of the MCD area.

..Leitman/Mosier.. 05/17/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4iVCMGDVygPYJXaJqhkGRy6bJJ2Li_QPRwUOsr-biFAnbsDYQVg0mQrxlRHrdBa6RRWMiUMN6= t2uXiqTunCqDutzsxM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON 41049965 41469944 41719901 41739690 41609585 41259560
40839567 40459580 40049618 39459692 39209738 39039794
39059865 39159883 39409918 40189959 40849968 41049965=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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