ACUS11 KWNS 171843
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171842=20
FLZ000-GAZ000-172045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0750
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Florida Peninsula into North
Florida and central Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 171842Z - 172045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms will pose a risk for
isolated damaging wind gusts/downbursts and small to marginally
severe hail through this evening. Watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...An increase in convective coverage is expected through
this afternoon from the western Florida Peninsula into southern
Georgia along the Atlantic and Gulf Coast sea breezes. Temperatures
in the low-90s F and dewpoints in the upper-60s to low-70s are
supporting moderate to strong buoyancy, with MLCAPE of 2000-3000+
J/kg analyzed per latest mesoanalysis. Despite moderately strong
northwesterly upper-level flow, meager mid-level flow (less than 15
kts sampled at 500 mb by the 12z TBW/JAX observed soundings) is
forecast to limit effective bulk shear to around 20 kts or less.
While this is expected to largely limit storm organization, a
favorable thermodynamic environment should support pulse-severe type convection. Steep low-level lapse rates (8+ C/km) and PWAT values of
1.5-1.8+ inches will promote the potential for strong to isolated
damaging downburst winds (likely in the 45-55 mph range). Small to
marginally severe hail may also accompany the strongest convective
cores. Convection will largely be diurnally driven, with coverage
forecast to decrease later this evening owing to nocturnal cooling/stabilization. Given the expectation for storm organization
and threat magnitude to remain limited, watch issuance is not
expected.

..Chalmers/Mosier.. 05/17/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8osFotI_528th6bmqA0rwVSZB2XDTTJMjPO-CJMu-gQRRg66MNaM7DpXEs1eZ-RBafX59dGvd= yKSY7kirIKeXotMvVk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON 27988296 28448283 28868292 29168312 29558337 30138375
30668391 31198400 31858406 32218392 32568369 32678330
32658319 32548275 32168234 31808217 31478196 31118185
30428179 29768173 29118160 28458146 27558119 26888093
26408085 26118095 25988115 25868145 25898175 26248202
27018253 27458277 27988296=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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