ACUS11 KWNS 171602
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171601=20
WIZ000-ILZ000-171800-

Mesoscale Discussion 0747
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Areas affected...southern Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 171601Z - 171800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated elevated thunderstorms may produce small hail and
locally strong wind gusts through early afternoon. A severe
thunderstorm watch is not currently expected.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are ongoing across southern WI
this morning near a remnant MCV from overnight convection. This
feature will continue to shift east/northeast into the afternoon.
Meanwhile, a quasi-stationary boundary/warm front is located near
the IL/WI border. Current convection remains north of this boundary
within the cooler, more stable low-level environment. Nevertheless,
modest moisture and enhanced vertical shear near the MCV is
supporting weak MUCAPE and enough flow for organized updrafts.
Midlevel lapse rates are weak across the region, though may steepen
modestly into the afternoon. Given favorable deep layer shear and
stronger midlevel flow, isolated strong gusts are possible in
addition to small hail.

..Leitman/Mosier.. 05/17/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-ac17Ex6RG3i3K0BF6zWy1r62D3cYC7r5EqpeXQ3lKOZxX6el8QtMccS9uQgBw5mkT0bR1u1l= wMX7PhxBLeOwDy6g5s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...

LAT...LON 43199038 43868964 44058894 44008810 43168802 42548892
42478951 42638996 42899032 43199038=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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