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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0745

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 17 05:34:36 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 170534
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 170533=20
    MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-170700-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0745
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1233 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

    Areas affected...northeast Kansas...southeast Nebraska...and
    northwest Missouri

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 211...212...

    Valid 170533Z - 170700Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 211, 212
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Damaging wind threat should continue for the next 1-2
    hours with a fast moving bowing segment moving across northeast
    Kansas and southeast Nebraska. Farther east, large hail will remain
    possible across portions of far northern Missouri.

    DISCUSSION...A well organized linear bowing segment continues to
    quickly move east this morning. The overall environment along and
    immediately ahead of the MCS remains conducive for damaging
    thunderstorm winds, with measured wind gusts within the last hour in
    excess of 85 mph. In the next 1-2 hours, the ongoing bowing segment
    should move into a less favorable environment across northern
    Missouri where ongoing thunderstorms continue to reinforce a stable
    boundary layer. In turn, this should begin to lessen the overall
    damaging wind threat.=20

    Given the current speed of the bowing segment, a local extension in
    time for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 211 may be required across eastern/southeastern portions of the watch.

    Farther east, the aforementioned thunderstorms across northern
    Missouri will continue to have the potential to produce large hail
    as they remain rooted within an elevated CAPE reservoir. An isolated
    damaging wind gust cannot be ruled out.

    ..Marsh.. 05/17/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5N0W9RgCTGymE_Vsry-5Pv26CkQUKDF6N5sQ65bBJyVrNXO-0NkCh2t1C438gLRIERLD18PP-= DwLi3WayhnxSokigFg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

    LAT...LON 39189783 39909700 40559705 40589266 39609284 39389487
    39089657 39189783=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)