ACUS11 KWNS 170137
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170136=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-170330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0742
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0836 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Areas affected...far southeast Nebraska toward far northeast Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 211...

Valid 170136Z - 170330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 211
continues.

SUMMARY...A brief tornado cannot be ruled out as cells interact with
the wind shift/outflow.

DISCUSSION...Several cells are currently ongoing from Washington
County KS to just south of Lincoln, NE, and these are within the
instability axis where MLCAPE is over 3000 J/kg. Surface analysis
also shows an outflow boundary just north of these cells and
extending into northwest MO, with a more subtle wind shift with
northeast winds from just northwest of these cells into northern KS.

Area VWPs show the increasing low-level jet with around 35 kt out of
the south at Topeka. Given the increased shear with effective SRH
now over 200 m2/s2, a brief period in time and space may exist for a
brief tornado before these cells are undercut by the outflow.

..Jewell.. 05/17/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4ELYpQVEODsmDWjZCwdRG8c_47d_Mbz_bxQcKDTxD6miNO8ZOcejh9xkyJ19Q6G5UnvLwYDFw= RPE5TcbS6RT8_jNen4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON 40069787 40469718 40769678 40729615 40369608 39949640
39739717 39749761 39929787 40069787=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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