ACUS11 KWNS 170002
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170001=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-170200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0741
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0701 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Areas affected...northwest into north-central Kansas...southwest
into south-central Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 209...211...

Valid 170001Z - 170200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 209, 211
continues.

SUMMARY...A corridor of significant damaging winds appears to be
developing across northwest Kansas. Gusts over 75-80 mph may occur
across much of northern Kansas into southern Nebraska this evening.
Wind-driven hail is possible as well.

DISCUSSION...A broken line of supercells producing large hail
currently extends from southwest NE across central NE and into IA
near the stationary front, with most of this activity moving very
slowly. Large hail and very heavy rain remains likely with this
activity.

To the southwest, storms moving out of eastern CO and into northwest
KS have recently shown signs of increased outflow, with radar
indications of 60-70 kt inbound to KGLD radar. Additional supercells
have formed near Goodland KS just ahead of the developing bow as
well, resulting in a chaotic mixture of storm modes.

Given the steep lapse rate environment, backed/easterly low-level
winds to maximize storm-relative inflow, and increasing low-level
jet this evening, a damaging MCS/bow echo is anticipated to develop
out of the northwest KS activity. This potential system will move
across northern KS and southern NE, with widespread severe winds
likely. Significant gusts over 75 mph will be possible, with
isolated stronger gusts.

..Jewell.. 05/17/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8fiWJP30-ND0YOt4bvZBzzIIbZ0jY7umOp7_QGOBBXYwNSTcS6B_yDaaNbclTIoYSrzoBylZe= wpxvKicTcj6qUoTTTE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON 40190187 40520142 41009878 40989798 40659743 39539752
39259804 39099935 38980204 39740201 40190187=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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