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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1870

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Aug 2 02:21:50 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 020220
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 020219=20
    NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-020345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1870
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0919 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025

    Areas affected...Parts of northeastern Colorado and far southwestern
    Nebraska

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 564...

    Valid 020219Z - 020345Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 564 continues.

    SUMMARY...A localized severe risk will continue for another hour or
    two across parts of Tornado Watch 564. A downstream watch is not
    currently expected.

    DISCUSSION...A well-established storm cluster (with recent measured
    gusts up to 70 mph) is tracking southeastward at around 30 kt across
    far northeastern CO. A narrow corridor of moderately unstable inflow
    (lower 60s dewpoints), 30-40 kt of effective shear, and an
    established 30-35 kt low-level jet (per VWP data) will support the
    maintenance of these storms with southeastward extent for at least
    the next hour or two. Given the cluster storm mode, severe wind
    gusts continue to be the primary concern, though a brief tornado
    cannot be entirely ruled out -- given enhanced low-level hodograph
    curvature accompanying the low-level jet (around 250 m2/s2 effective
    SRH) and moist boundary layer.=20

    While these storms may move out of Tornado Watch 564, current
    thinking is that increasing nocturnal static stability should
    eventually limit the severe risk with east-southeastward extent.
    Therefore, a downstream watch is not currently expected, though
    convective trends are being monitored.

    ..Weinman/Gleason.. 08/02/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6jynonnZnpcmEtI7fQ6-OOjHNC3vgDliYXnMEVOscd5O9yt8uCwsLsb29vUgOVxY3Otisf-KF= P_X48MoVxt8n5ce3yA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 40740360 41170300 41230248 41020199 40390156 39970181
    39740234 39850308 40310362 40740360=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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