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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1867

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Aug 1 22:59:18 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 012259
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 012258=20
    NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-020100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1867
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0558 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025

    Areas affected...Parts of southeast WY...the southwestern NE
    Panhandle...and northeast CO

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 564...

    Valid 012258Z - 020100Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 564 continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe risk should continue increasing across Tornado
    Watch 564, especially with east-southeastward extent into this
    evening. Large hail, severe gusts, and a couple tornadoes all remain
    possible.

    DISCUSSION...Recent radar and IR satellite imagery show an increase
    in thunderstorm intensity across far southeast WY -- generally
    focused along an outflow boundary that moved into the area. These
    storms are now impinging on an axis of upper 50s/lower 60s dewpoints
    and steep low/midlevel lapse rates. This moderately unstable air
    mass (around 2500 J/kg MLCAPE) and 40-50 kt of 0-6 km shear (per CYS
    VWP and mesoanalysis) should support continued intensification of
    these storms, especially as they continue east-southeastward into
    this evening. While strong outflow generation may continue to
    promote clustering/localized upscale growth (with a related severe
    wind risk), the favorable deep-layer shear/buoyancy and sufficient boundary-layer helicity (around 130 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH) will also
    support embedded supercell structures -- capable of producing
    sporadic large hail and perhaps a couple tornadoes.

    ..Weinman.. 08/01/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_3qtApo4gGRd5VFKzCwpkqcnXaYRpyElfaApv-CFTXyP8VRtW-YFpwsySWZLkE5tgaZkV71Qz= J0imkZBYw_3f1IVn88$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 41310522 41580424 41990406 41990365 41790293 41440262
    41000279 40640330 40440416 40570474 41020529 41310522=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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