ACUS11 KWNS 011844
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011844=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-VAZ000-012045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1861
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025

Areas affected...Far southern Virginia into North Carolina and
northern South Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 011844Z - 012045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms emanating off the Blue Ridge Mountains and
developing along a cold front will pose a damaging wind threat
through early evening. Watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development is well underway along the
Blue Ridge Mountains amid a combination of diurnal destabilization
and increasing ascent due to both lift along an approaching
baroclinic zone and modest upslope flow. Additionally, thunderstorms
are beginning to slowly intensify along a weak cold front across
northern SC where temperatures have warmed into the low 90s.
Although deep-layer flow is fairly weak (generally less than 20
knots through 6 km), somewhat uniform ascent along the terrain/front
is promoting sufficient convective coverage/spacing to favor
multicell clusters with consolidated cold pools. The expectation
through early evening is for one or more clusters to emerge off the
terrain and propagate south/southeast into the more buoyant air mass
across the Carolinas ahead of the primary baroclinic zone. As this
occurs, a combination of high PWAT values (well above 2.0 inches)
and steepening 0-2 km lapse rates should promote wet downbursts
capable of transient strong to severe gusts (mainly 45-65 mph)
within the stronger clusters. While wind damage is probable, the
poor kinematic environment should limit the overall propensity for
severe convection and precludes watch issuance.

..Moore/Smith.. 08/01/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7jswlYkHy96L4aZvOdpa4ymC26PXoR2ywLDZhvO7sijRPF3as7nKr0GWh2R4Pt2HZ2PjS4OBa= SL-XDu7tq2jG99UPas$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON 33687892 33588016 33988178 34288245 34528268 34838282
35118283 35438264 35858221 36408152 37008045 37148005
37177980 37107962 36977939 36807927 36627916 36407912
36177914 35927911 35697897 35517885 35297865 35167840
34977805 34817776 34627758 34487755 34337753 34147757
33917782 33807822 33687892=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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