ACUS11 KWNS 312253
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312252=20
COZ000-010115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1857
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0552 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Areas affected...Parts of east-central and southeast Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 312252Z - 010115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Severe storm risk will increase over the next few hours.
The stronger storms will be capable of producing isolated large hail
and severe wind gusts. A watch is not currently expected, though
trends are being monitored.

DISCUSSION...A few thunderstorms are evolving along the higher
terrain west of the I-25 corridor in central/southern CO. Cool
temperatures aloft and an elongated hodograph (around 35 kt of 0-6
km shear per PUX VWP) will support isolated large hail with this
activity. Regional/upstream VWP data indicates modest strengthening
of west-southwesterly midlevel winds overspreading the area, which
will allow storms to gradually advance eastward into the CO Plains
tonight. Moist/east-southeasterly upslope flow beneath the
strengthening midlevel westerlies will yield an elongated/straight
hodograph amid sufficient surface-based buoyancy -- supportive of
loosely organized storm clusters.=20

Isolated large hail and locally severe gusts will be possible with
any clusters that evolve, though generally weak large-scale forcing
for ascent casts uncertainty on the coverage of storms. A watch is
not currently expected, though convective trends will be monitored.

..Weinman/Thompson.. 07/31/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7ZXjjdZceHuf5H9EdgVxN87uiLi2KNaC8PKkf3VHWcv1dRRhM5RgYqu6X5bPEYerOIBxFrmoK= vggZOW129nXGSmKPc8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON 37400513 38620523 39320506 39930467 39970378 39610334
39060316 37980310 37420338 37110396 37120466 37400513=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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