ACUS11 KWNS 311949
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311949=20
NEZ000-COZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-MTZ000-312045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1854
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Areas affected...portions of northeastern Colorado into eastern and
northern Wyoming

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 311949Z - 312045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity will increase through the afternoon
and evening. Storms will pose a risk for large hail and damaging
wind as they move off the high terrain into the lower plains.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are building across the Front Range this
afternoon with some increase in lighting production noted over the
last hour. Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and
gradually move into the lower plains this afternoon and evening.=20

East of the high terrain, daytime heating has allowed temperatures
to warm into the mid 70s to 80s amid dew points in the upper 50s.
This has yielded MLCAPE values around 1000-2000 J/kg across eastern
Colorado into eastern Wyoming. Deep layer shear around 30-35 kts
will initially support a few transient supercells capable of large
hail. As cells interact and cluster along outflow, the damaging wind
risk will into the afternoon.

..Thornton/Smith.. 07/31/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_1zwamYN0jmjt9F2fjDhq48V0R-PDDzQNxjjGIkuCf39xIz8_W-5xHG8gXDeEdJYLPEnn8QC7= 2kbBcce--wu5MVZYUg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON 41220644 41550673 42670763 43090790 44400824 44970765
45030675 44350534 43640430 42580358 41950331 40640343
39920392 39260486 39210560 39420602 41220644=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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