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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1851

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jul 30 23:05:36 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 302305
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 302304=20
    WYZ000-310130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1851
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0604 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

    Areas affected...much of central into eastern Wyoming

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 302304Z - 310130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms may increase in coverage into central Wyoming this
    evening, with locally damaging gusts and area of hail.

    DISCUSSION...Storms have increased in intensity over north-central
    WY with hail cores noted, with additional activity across southwest
    WY recently. The easterly low-level flow regime has maintained a
    relatively moist air mass into central WY, with MUCAPE in excess of
    1500 J/kg. Mid and high level winds are not particularly strong, but directional changes with height are resulting in 35-45 kt effective
    deep-layer shear across the region.

    As convection accrues over north-central WY, and eventual outflow
    push south/southeastward is possible, while activity farther south
    may yield northeast outflow surges. The end result may be colliding
    boundaries and additional development, with locally severe gusts
    along with areas of hail. The majority of the activity may remain
    marginally severe, and therefore a watch may not be needed.

    ..Jewell/Thompson.. 07/30/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_xt8_BvnoPGK_3pqxFAUJ8TydO_Me6S8OUZqz_kXrngCqEmRy1hD-RKn_noJeBB2KwRHYNuuO= vx_aQj-JzGGtSNMKIc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...RIW...

    LAT...LON 44220795 44220673 44020561 43480481 42760446 42340441
    41790467 41620552 42040659 42190836 42440916 42690936
    43400938 43680909 44220795=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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