ACUS11 KWNS 302217
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302216=20
MOZ000-KSZ000-302345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1850
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0516 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Areas affected...portions of southern and eastern Kansas into
southwestern Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 302216Z - 302345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple instances of large hail or severe gusts are
possible with the stronger storms that manage to sustain themselves.
However, the overall severe threat should remain isolated.

DISCUSSION...Multiple multicellular clusters have developed along a
diffuse baroclinic boundary, amid strong buoyancy but weak vertical
wind shear. These storms are already demonstrating outflow
tendencies, as noted on regional radar imagery and visible
satellite. However, this outflow continues to propagate southward
within a highly unstable airmass, characterized by over 3000 J/kg
MLCAPE, driven primarily by upper 90s/low 70s F surface
temperatures/dewpoints. Current thinking is that new updrafts will
continue to develop on the leading edge of outflow, with a southward propagation expected. Given weak shear, primary convective mode
should be outflow-dominant pulse cellular and multicellular storms.
At the height of their intensity, storms may produce a couple
instances of severe wind or hail. However, the severe threat should
be isolated at best, and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is not
currently anticipated.

..Squitieri/Thompson.. 07/30/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9KVp7mk_RJgJlnNboybTmcMD0WD2hE98OZ99qSEFP0tvjx4FFDR8ZawPOc8F-c86iDLmsVWIw= Yd8g4IzKwvQGrl_OIc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 37819742 38519554 38409427 37979335 37509318 37189337
37019412 37089521 37079628 37149693 37299743 37819742=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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