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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1849

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jul 30 20:32:42 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 302032
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 302031=20
    WYZ000-MTZ000-302230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1849
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0331 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

    Areas affected...Central Wyoming into Southern Montana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 302031Z - 302230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms capable of isolated severe hail
    and severe wind gusts will be possible this afternoon into the
    evening. However, given that widespread severe storms are not
    expected at this time, the likelihood of weather watch issuance is
    low.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorm have developed across portions
    of western and central Wyoming this afternoon, in an environment
    characterized by 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE and 45-40 kts of effective
    deep-layer shear. While there is sufficient shear for some storms to
    become more intense and organized, the expectation is that any
    severe storms will largely be isolated and transient in nature. Any
    organized convection would be capable of 60 MPH wind gusts and any
    hail is expected to remain below 2.00 inches in size.=20

    While the probability of watch issuance is expected to remain low,
    convective trends will continue to be monitored.

    ..Halbert/Smith.. 07/30/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4MypGpvI3KP5v0cpLmXMC1Fx5_HeA-Hff3S9g4ENvUc-IAiczgm2KKu38-lBRSJvnzEP0g3Yp= OYCS1spg-Fqpkbmlk8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

    LAT...LON 46040868 46070809 45900752 45740717 45530695 45360670
    44900637 43780585 42860549 41990549 41380564 41170578
    41110590 41060606 41040618 41030646 41040698 41340723
    41720767 42000802 42170832 42410867 42810916 43190946
    43850975 44510991 44891000 45270998 45530985 45740960
    45930918 46040868=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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