1. Forum
  2. FidoNet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1847

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jul 30 17:03:14 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 301703
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 301702=20
    INZ000-MIZ000-ILZ000-301930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1847
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1202 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

    Areas affected...parts of south central/eastern Illinois into
    northwestern Indiana and southwestern Lower Michigan

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 301702Z - 301930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms may undergo gradual
    intensification with increasing potential for locally strong to
    severe wind gusts while advancing eastward around 20-30 kt, into and
    through mid to late afternoon (2-4 PM CDT/3-5 PM EDT). It is still
    not clear that a severe weather watch is needed, but trends will be
    monitored.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development along a modest eastward
    propagating convective cold pool has undergone recent renewed
    intensification, likely aided by easterly low-level updraft inflow
    of destabilizing boundary-layer air characterized by seasonably high
    moisture content (including mid/upper 70s surface dew points). The boundary-layer moisture may be contributing to CAPE in excess of
    2000 J/kg, forecast soundings indicate that lapse rates in
    mid/upper-levels are modest to weak.=20=20

    Although a belt of southwesterly flow on the order of 30-40 kts in
    the 700-500 mb layer may be contributing to at least moderately
    strong deep-layer shear, deeper-layer mean flow remains a rather
    modest to weak 15-25 kts. Still, the shear and forcing for ascent
    associated with a supporting upstream mid-level trough may be
    sufficient to maintain ongoing activity through this afternoon.

    Gradually, further insolation, boundary-layer warming and steepening
    of low-level lapse rates could contribute to further intensification
    of convection development, with possible developing embedded
    mesoscale cyclonic circulations and a strengthening cold pool,
    accompanied by increasing potential for locally strong to severe
    surface gusts.

    ..Kerr/Smith.. 07/30/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-oR9UzuH_7U-nWZcTh6pFYZHztKwEM_gmhBVpuRPkiLlIrH7Hx4qfeWs8s0e_U1C9g08W4xjP= EzylQPD2D2lhtNgCOc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

    LAT...LON 41768740 41838540 40718550 38748726 38348881 38878987
    39638908 40318882 41768740=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)