ACUS11 KWNS 300949
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300949=20
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-301045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1845
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0449 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Areas affected...southeast IA...northwest IL...far northeast MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 561...

Valid 300949Z - 301045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 561
continues.

SUMMARY...Sporadic strong gusts of 40-60 mph will remain possible
through mid-morning. An additional watch issuance beyond WW 561 is
not planned.

DISCUSSION...A pair of MCSs persist from northwest MO to far
northwest IL. The lead one had been more productive in terms of
measured strong to severe gusts earlier this morning, but has shown
clear signs of decay over the past couple hours while crossing the
MS Valley. A near-term strong gust threat could still occur across
far northern IL, near the WI border, but should subside in the next
couple hours given the dearth of MLCAPE in this region northward.=20

The larger MCS has struggled to produce stronger gusts perhaps in
part due to its northeast/southwest orientation paralleling the
deep-layer shear vector. Still, with deep convective cores for this
time of day, it is plausible that an oscillatory uptick to marginal
severe intensity may yet occur across southeast IA, perhaps
spreading into far northeast MO and northwest/west-central IL
through mid-morning.

..Grams/Hart.. 07/30/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7T-1_YmW3vH6OFPM8wDP_j-MoUI94xLLXShmydppim5xFfZytjtHwhzZgKV_tn1eY9tr92c1U= soiu_9mQfk2kBI9IGI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON 42478995 42608907 42248881 41768881 41088900 40329024
40119156 40449304 40769334 41469273 41909244 41749189
41569120 41619046 42079000 42478995=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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